Black Box Thinking is based on the simple premise that some people (and some industries) learn from their mistakes, while others don't. Flying is widely considered the safest form of travel – but this is only because the industry obsessively seeks to improve its processes (by analysing black boxes after incidents) and promptly rolls out any necessary changes.

The main contrasting example is medicine – Syed details how well-meaning (and highly competent) medical professionals inhibit their improvement loop while suggesting structural changes to improve this.

This book was recommended to me by a senior investment professional, and I can see why. Even the best stock pickers in the world have a hit rate of only ~60%, so it’s incredibly important to have the right attitude to failure.

Black Box Thinking is written very well and reads easily – I got a lot of value from the book and would wholeheartedly recommend it. My key takeaway: learning to make mistakes is a big part of learning to learn.


Highlights